Impact of climate change on the generation of the SFV-CIPD-UNALM: projections to 2100 under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario

Abstract

The photovoltaic system, comprising ten 325 W panels, installed at the Disaster Prevention and Research Center of the National Agrarian University La Molina (Lima, Peru) met 32.3% of the building's energy demand between 2019 and 2022, prompting an evaluation of its future performance in the face of climate change. Applying bias correction, thirty-three climate models from the CMIP6 project were analyzed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. To select the most representative model, historical ambient temperature data from PISCO (validated against Meteocontrol records) and observed irradiance from the same platform were evaluated. The CNRM-CM6-1-HR-f2 model was selected as the most representative. Power projections through 2100 estimate maximum and minimum monthly values of 280.94 W and 199.51 W, respectively. Furthermore, the average annual power output for the period 2024-2100 was 239.809 W, representing a 26.21% reduction relative to the photovoltaic module's nominal capacity of 325 W. The Mann-Kendall test revealed a statistically significant downward trend. The results indicate that thermal stress will reduce system efficiency and the energy return rate, thereby limiting photovoltaic generation in Lima and highlighting the need to consider climate change impacts in energy planning and sustainable building design.