Lost or saved? The future of work in the face of the fourth Industrial Revolution

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21142//DES-1201-2020-0018

Keywords:

Fourth Industrial Revolution, future of employment, automation, social inequality

Abstract

This narrative bibliographical analysis aims to inquire into how many jobs will be lost or gained in the mediumterm future as a result of the automation of labor being introduced as part of the fourth Industrial Revolution. The main focus is upon academic texts, coupled with analysis of the public policies of different countries around the world and the business documents of multinational companies, which address different time and spatial frameworks in their predictions. There exists a wide variety of conclusions among different authors, with no consensus on whether there will be an overall gain or loss of jobs in absolute terms; however, we identify three basic consensuses: 1) The most vulnerable countries and sectors are those that depend upon repetitive rather than creative jobs. Emerging or developing countries will be fundamentally affected; 2) A high degree of social fragmentation is expected, with a concentration of jobs at both extremes of the salary and cognitive demands scales; and, 3) More than ever before, education will be the key factor in the raising of living standards, at both individual and societal levels.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

  • Lautaro N. Rubbi, Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, UADE. Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Licenciado en Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales y en Política y Administración Pública por la Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, UADE. Magíster en Estudios Internacionales y candidato a doctor por la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, UTDT. Becario Doctoral y docente investigador de UADE-Conicet.

  • Bruna Barlaro Rovati, Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, UADE. Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Licenciada en Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales por la Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, UADE, y docente en la misma casa de estudios. Investigadora especialista en Relaciones Internacionales y Seguridad Internacional.

  • Axel Petraglia, Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, UADE. Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Estudiante avanzado de la Licenciatura en Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales de la UADE.

References

Aboal, D. y Zunino, G. (2017). Innovaciones y habilidades en América Latina. En: INTAL (2017). Robotlución. INTAL. Integración & Comercio. 40. Recuperado de: https://publications.iadb.org.
Acemoglu, D. (2002). Technical change, inequality, and the labor market. Journal of Economic Literature. 40, pp. 7-72.
Acemoglu, D. y Restrepo, P. (2016). The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment. NBER Working Paper No. 22252.
Acemoglu, D. y Restrepo, P. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence Form US and the Labour Markets. NBER Working Paper No. 23285.
Apella, I. y Zunino, G. (2017). Cambio Tecnológico y el Mercado de Trabajo en Argentina y Uruguay: Un Análisis desde el Enfoque de Tareas. Banco Mundial, 11.
Arntz, M., Gregory, T. y Zierahn, U. (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries, OECD Social, Employment and Migration. Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing: Paris.
Atkinson, R. y Wu, J. (2017). False Alarmism: Technological Disruption and the U.S. Labor Market, 1850–2015. Information Technology & Innovation Fundation.
Autor, D. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29:3, pp. 3–30.
Autor, D. (2016). Automatización y empleo: de qué deberíamos preocuparnos (y de qué no). Boletín Informativo Techint 354..
Autor, D. H., F. Levy y R. J. Murnane (2003), The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 1279-1333.
Autor, D. y Dorn, D. (2013). The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market. American Economic Review, 103:5, pp. 1553-1597.
Autor, David H., David Dorn, & Gordon H. Hanson (2015). Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets. Economic Journal, 125:584, pp. 621-646.
Autor, David H., Lawrence F. Katz, y Melissa S. Kearney. (2008) Trends in US wage inequality: Revising the revisionists. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90:2, pp. 300–323
Baert, A. y Ledent, P. (2015), La Révolution Technologique En Belgique. ING FOCUS-Emploi. Bruxelles: ING.
Bakhshi, H., Downing, J. M., Osborne, M. A., y Schneider, P. (2017). The Future of Skills: Employment 2030. London: Pearson and Nesta.
Banco Mundial (2016). World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. Washington DC: The World Bank.
Beliz, G. (2017). Un contrato social tecnológico para América Latina. En Robotlución. INTAL. 2017. Integración & Comercio. 40. Recuperado de: https://publications.iadb.org.
Berriman, R. (2017). Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies. PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Bessen, J., Goos, M., Salomons, A. y Van Den Berge, W. (2019). Automatic Reaction: What happens to workers at firms that automate?. CBS working Paper.
Bowles, J. (2014), The computerisation of European jobs. Bruegel Blog. Recuperado de: http://bruegel.org/2014/07/the-computerisation-of-european-jobs/
Brynjolfsson, E. y A. McAfee. (2011). Race Against the Machines: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
Brynjolfsson, E. y A. McAfee. (2014). The second machine age: work, progress, and prosperity in a time.
Carlson, M. (2015). The Robotic Reporter. Routledge, 3:3, pp. 416–431.
CBInsights (2017), The State of Automation, disponible online en https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/state-of-automation/
Chui, M., Manyika, J. y Miremadi, M. (2019). Where machines could replace humans—and where they can’t (yet). McKinsey Digital.
Cowen, T. (2013). Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation. Nueva York: Dutton.
Cronin, P., Ryan, F. y Coughlan, M. (2008). Undertaking a literature review: A step-by-step approach. British journal of nursing. Mark Allen Publishing.
DeCanio, S. J. (2016). Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?. Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 49, pp. 280-291.
Degryse, C. (2016). Digitalisation of the Economy and its Impact on Labour Markets. ETUI Research Paper: Working Paper 2016.02.
Deloitte. (2016). Transforming the Swiss Economy: The Impact of Automation on Employment and Industries. Recuperado de: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ch/Documents/innovation/ch-en-cons-innovation-transforming-swiss-economy.pdf
Deloitte (2014). De Impact van Automatisering Op de Nederlandse Arbeidsmarkt.
Deloitte (2015). From brawn to brains. The impact of technology on jobs in the UK.
De Zavalia, E., Del Águila, J., Cuesta, A. y Rubbi, L. (2019). Empresas, Empleo y Educación ante el Cambio Tecnológico. En Academia Argentina de Letras (2019). Academias, Conocimiento y Sociedad, pp. 79 - 102.
Downey, M. (2016). Partial Automation: Routine-Biased Technical Change, Deskilling, and the Minimum Wage. San Diego: University of California. Recuperado de: http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pmdowney/pdfs/wp/ PartialAutomation.pdf
Edmonds, D., y Bradley, T. (2015). Mechanical boon: will automation advance Australia?. Office of the Chief Economist. Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.
Engler, J., Pritzker, P., Alden, E. y Taylor-Kale, L. (2018). The Work Ahead: Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century. Council of Foreign Relations.
Eslake, S. (2017). Insecurity, Inequality and the Labour Market. Jobs Australia Conference. Hobart: ResearchGate.
Estevadeordal (2017). Estar preparados. En INTAL (2017). Robotlución. Integración & Comercio. 40. Recuperado de: https://publications.iadb.org.
European Parliamentary Technology Assessment. (2016). The Future of Labour in the Digital Era. Ubiquitous Computing, Virtual Platforms, and Real-time Production. Recuperado de: http://epub.oeaw.ac.at/ita/ita-projektberichte/ EPTA-2016-Digital-Labour.pdf.
Fernández-Macías, E. y Hurley, J. (2016). Routine-biased technical change and job polarization in Europe. Socio-Economic Review, 15:3, pp. 563–585.
Finextra (2016). Banking on Blockchain: Charting the Progress of Distributed Ledger Technology in Financial Services. Finextra White Paper.
FIR (2016). World Robotics: Industrial Robots. Federación Internacional de Robótica (IFR).
FIR (2019). World Robotics 2019: Industrial Robots. Federación Internacional de Robots.
Frey, C. B. y Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, pp. 254-280.
Fundación Bertelsmann (2015). 2050: The Future of Work. Recuperado de: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/BST_Delphi_E_03lay.pdf
Galiani, S. (2017). Terminator IV. Boletín Techint.
German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (2016). White Paper - Work 4.0. Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.
Goldin, I. (2016). How immigration has changed the world – for the better. Geneva: World Economic Forum. Recuperado de: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/how-immigration-has-changed-the-world-for-the-better/
Goos, M., Manning, A. y Salomons, A. (2009). Job polarization in Europe. The American Economic Review, 99:2, pp. 58–63.
Goos, M., Manning, A. y Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring. The American Economic Review, 104:8, pp. 2509-2526.
Goos, M. et al. (2015). Employment Growth in Europe: The Role of Innovation, Local Job Multipliers.
ILO. (2016). Non-Standard Employment Around the World: Understanding Challenges, Shaping Prospects. Ginebra: Organización Internacional del Trabajo.
Laviña Orueta, J., Serrano, G. L. y Varela Ferrio, J. (2019). Innovación Tecnológica Y Empleo. Foro Empresas Innovadoras. Recuperado de: http://foroempresasinnovadoras.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Libro-OK_v6-final.pdf
Luksha, P., et. al. (2015). Atlas of Emerging Jobs. Skolkovo.
ManpowerGroup. (2017). The Skills Revolution: Digitalization and Why Skills and Talent Matter.
Manyika, J., Chui, M., Miremadi, M., Bughin, J., George, K., Willmott, P. y Dewhurst, M. (2017), A Future that Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity. McKinsey Global Institute.
McKinsey & Company; αlphaβeta; Macquarie Group Foundation. (2018). A demand driven approach to addressing youth unemployment in Australia. Sydney: McKinsey & Company; αlphaβeta; Macquarie Group Foundation.
McKinsey & Company. (2015). The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. New York.
McKinsey and Company (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. Recuperado de: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages
MGI (2013). Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy. Tech. Rep., McKinsey Global Institute.
Michaels, G., Ashwini, N. y Van Reenen, J. (2014). Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96:1, pp. 60–77.
Moretti, E. (2010). Local Multipliers. American Economic Review, 100:2, pp. 373-377.
OCDE (2017). Computers and the future skills of job demand 2017. Recuperado de: https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/computers-and-the-future-of-skill-demand_9789264284395-en#page1
Oxford Martin School (2015). Industrial Renewal in the 21st Century: Evidence from US Cities?. University of Oxford.
Pollin, R., Garrett-Peltier, H., Heintz, J. y Hendricks, B. (2014). Green Growth: A U.S Program for Controlling Climate Change and Expanding Job Opportunities. Center for American Progress.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (2017). Will Robots Steal Our Jobs? The Potential Impact of Automation on the UK and Other Major Economies. PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Rofman, R. y Apella, I. (2017). Envejecimiento poblacional, cambio tecnológico y mercado de trabajo en Argentina. Boletín Techint.
RolandBerger (2014). Think act - Les classes moyennes face à la transformation digitale. RolandBerger.
Roos, G. y Shroff, Z. (2017). What will happen to the jobs? Technology-enabled productivity improvement – good for some, bad for others.
Salazar-Xirinachs, J. M. (2017). The Future of Work, Employment and Skills in Latin America and the Caribbean. Organización Internacional del Trabajo. Recuperado de: http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---americas/---ro-lima/---sro-port_of_spain/documents/publication/wcms_544337.pdf
Santanatoglia, E., Sosa Valle, F., Mariani, K. y Pivetta, G. (2018). Future Of Work And Education For The Digital Age: Providing a broader framework to social and labour relations. Think 20.
Schumpeter, J. (1942). Creative destruction. Capitalism, socialism and democracy, 825, pp. 82-85.
Schwab, K. (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum.
ServiceNow (2017). Today’s State of Work: At the Breaking Point.
Smith, A. y Anderson, J. (2014). AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs. Recuperado de: http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/.
The Economist (2018). The Automation readiness index. Recuperado de: http://www.automationreadiness.eiu.com/
Valenduc, G. y Vendramin, P. (2017). Digitalisation, between disruption and evolution. European Review of Labour and Research, 23:2, pp. 121–134.
WEF (2018). Informe sobre la Preparación para el futuro de la producción 2018. Foro Económico Mundial 2018. Recuperado de: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/FOP_Readiness_Report_2018.pdf
West, D.M. (2015). What Happens If Robots Take the Jobs? The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Employment and Public Policy. Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings.
World Economic Forum. (2016). Values and the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Connecting the Dots Between Value, Values, Profit and Purpose. Global Agenda Council (2014-2016). Cologny: World Economic Forum.
World Economic Forum. (2017b). Robot Revolution: The Economics of Automation.
World Economic Forum (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond. Recuperado de: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
αlphaβeta. (2017). The Automation Advantage. Sydney: αlphaβeta. Recuperado de: https://www.alphabeta.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/The-Automation-Advantage.pdf

Downloads

Published

2020-06-30

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Lost or saved? The future of work in the face of the fourth Industrial Revolution. (2020). Desde El Sur, 12(1), 241-276. https://doi.org/10.21142//DES-1201-2020-0018

Similar Articles

11-20 of 442

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.